BITCOIN MONTHLY REPORT 5TH DECEMBER 2022

BITCOIN YEARLY & PRIMARY CYCLES

Bitcoin trading between the 2022 Yearly lows, and now in December.

My view is that December continues to consolidate  into 2023, once that happens I will be looking for a move towards 33,954, probably occurring in the last 1st quarter going into April

If there's a Weekly close above this, then a quick spike up into the 2023 highs, and take the money and run. (May 2023)

Sit and then wait for a large dip into the Secondary lows, which will then set-up the 2024 massive bull run into the end of 2025 early 2026 (10x)

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORT 6 NOVEMBER 2022

 

ETHEREUM PRIMARY AND WEEKLY CYCLES

Ideal Target in November is 1,929 in the week of 7th November

1,553 is seen as support

BITCOIN SECONDARY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

I expected more upside in October to at least 23k and then a move to 28k in November.

The Cycles in the Secondary timeframe favours this - NOV break (left Chart)

However, the open below the November 50% level isn't a good sign.

1. it needs to break up early this week (support 20,795) for a move upside.

2. a tight weekly range below the NOV 50% level is not a good sign and there's a potential move down to 15k  in the final week of NOV and new lows - December Support

BITCOIN October Monthly Report Update - Part 2 5th October 2022

BITCOIN SECONDARY & PRIMARY

October is Statistically an UP month and rising from the 4th Quarter lows In both 2020 and 2021, the equivalent move is marked in Green (27-28k) with a single week move towards the channel highs (Blue 24 k) In 2019, failed at the monthly 50% level (22.8k) & continued lower into 1st Quarter...(BEAR MARKET)

 

ETHEREUM & BITCOIN MONTHLY REPORT 3RD OCTOBER 2022

 

ETHEREUM 

I'm extremely bearish on the S&P 500, and I think it will drag Crypto lower going into 2023.

However, whenever there is a down month in September, we often see gains in October.

Ideally I would like to see price push down early towards the October lows, take positions for a higher monthly lows.

However, I think prices will dip lower into 2033.

Currently I can't see upside because of the Primary levels.

BITCOIN YEARLY AND SECONDARY CYCLES

    BITCOIN currently wedged in between the yearly lows of 16.5k and 21.k, 

and it might not drop below 16.5k

However we can see a Monthly close below the OCT-DEC Levels, but the cycles have support around 17.5k

I'm not bullish until lower prices, but statistically a bearish September leads to a higher October.

BITCOIN SECONDARY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

I'm looking for a push down, but if there's a Weekly close above the Yellow Channels, then I'm looking for a higher October move into November (as high as 28k)

ETHEREUM & BITCOIN REPORT 5TH SEPTEMBER 2022

 

    ETHEREUM 

We've seen a rotation up from the lows, but price failed at the same levels as in the 1st & 2nd Quarter, this time 1948 in the 3rd quarter. (50% level)

Looking at the monthly Cycles in September, it's hard to get excited that price is going to trend higher.

As well as my view of the SP500 (read report), if those September lows can't hold (SUPPORT), I will be dollar cost averaging around 400

BITCOIN

    Whilst #ETH reached the 50% level, #bitcoin failed to reach the 28.5k 

It may still surprise in late September, (or at least rise to 23k) but can easily push down into the Sept lows at 17.5k.

I will be dollar cost averaging around 11.5k on any further weakness

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORTS 7TH AUGUST 2022

 

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND SECONDARY CYCLES

Nice July counter-trend move after completing the Break and extend pattern down into the 2022 lows.

I was hoping that price had reached 1948 by 8th August and then see more gains up into 2,487 for the rest of August, but it's lagging an extremely bullish move. 

At the moment it's a larger rotation pattern that might fail to crack 1948, like it did in the 1st and 2nd Quarters.  

I'd be keeping an eye on the following weekly channels for any new trending periods, either way. 

#Ethereum 

BITCOIN YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

Bitcoin lagging the same percentage moves as Ethereum.

I still have the view that the 3rd Quarter is rising upwards, after completing the break and extend patterns at the start of July.

However, it might have a hard time moving higher than 25.5k in August, and then we turn our attention to September.

A Weekly close above the Channels will be a confirming starting point, which hasn't happened as yet, compared to Ethereum in the 2nd week of July.  

It wouldn't surprise me to see #Bitcoin retesting the lows around 19k - 20k again

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORT 3RD JULY 2022

 

ETHEREUM YEARLY & PRIMARY CYCLES

Price is still consolidating around the 2022 lows - which is a major support level.

Sure price can go down lower - Break and extend pattern down to 323 if it can't hold the level of 894 (July - September lows)

However, my view is that the Break & extend pattern in the Quarterly timeframe will provide a larger counter - trend move upwards that could  go as high as the previous break of 2,483  to 3000 (take the money and run)

Short-Term (July), any rise it it might have a hard time rising past 1400-85

BITCOIN YEARLY AND QUARTERLY  CYCLES

Break and Extend Pattern completed  and now trading around the July - September lows (3rd Quarter)

Price is also trading around the 2022 lows.

I'm looking for a major up move in the 3rd Quarter that retests the previous break around 37-39k,  where I would take the move an run.

Not sure July will move higher than 26-27k.

BITCOIN QUARTERLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

There maybe a dip down into 17.5k, but I'm still looking for an up move.

Follow me on twitter or daily updates and short-term timeframe set-ups 

@timepricetravel 

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM 19TH JUNE 2022 rEPORT

ETHEREUM 

There's no support in Ethereum in the yearly cycles until it reaches 1048.

 

1048 Reached, but a Weekly close below 1095, and I would be putting in  buys around the 460-480 level

BITCOIN 

Yearly Cycles trading around major support levels 16.5k - 21k Primary Cycles 15.6k major support level this month, where we turn our attention towards July for counter-trend moves upward Extended scenario - 6,735 (100% extension of the Yearly timeframe)

I won't be surprised to see this level reached in the later half of 2022, late 3rd Quarter / 4th Quarter

I'd be surprised to see it happen over the next 2-3 weeks.

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORTS 5TH JUNE 2022

 

BITCOIN PRIMARY CYCLES

WITH MOSTLY LIKELY FOLLOWING A BREAK AND EXTEND PATTERIN DOWN FROM MAY INTO JUNE LOWS, WHICH MATCHES THE DOWNSIDE TARGET.

IS 27.5K THE LOW FOR THE YEAR?

27.5K support, but at lack of buying, as I expected price to be trading around the June 50% level of 35k. (similar price action to S&P & AUD/USD - read reports)

I still have the view price is rising upwards into that same level of 35k, but there is also a BREAK & EXTEND PATTERN from May lows of 34k that could see another push down into the June lows of 27.5 k (double low) before the rise happens

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

There's no support in Ethereum in the yearly cycles until it reaches 1048.

There's also a break and extend pattern the 2nd Quarter, therefore I would expect #ETH to remain flat until July. It's also trading outside the Yellow Channels.

We've now moved into June, which can support price around 1726, resulting in the rest of June moving into a sideways pattern until price re-enters the 3rd Quarter, forming a more robust support level and rotation up towards 2460

Below 1726 and trend is down 

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORTS

BITCOIN YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

2ND QUARTER SUPPORT AROUND 27.5K

APRIL MONTHLY CLOSE BELOW SUPPORT HAS LED TO SELLING PRESSURE AT THE START OF MAY.

ANY 2ND WEEK may BUYING WILL PROBABLY STRUGGLE TO RISE HIGHER THAN 35-39K

WITH MOSTLY LIKELY FOLLOWING A BREAK AND EXTEND PATTERIN DOWN FROM MAY INTO JUNE LOWS, WHICH MATCHES THE DOWNSIDE TARGET.

IS 27.5K THE LOW FOR THE YEAR?

MAYBE, BUT I'VE ALSO GOT TARGETS OF 16-21K OF BREAK OF SUPPORT IN LATE 3RD QUARTER

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

May lows and 2nd week support, with an increase of risk coming in the 3rd week.

It doesn't have the same April close below quarterly support as Bitcoin, but if Bitcoin continues lower in late May early June, we could see prices down around 1500.

Potential Bear Market, takes ETH down to 1100

 

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORTS 4TH APRIL 2022

 

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

Looking good for a continuation upwards in April 

Also pushing up from the 2nd Quarter in the Yearly Chart suggests more gains.

BITCOIN YEARTLY AND PRIMARY

March Support confirmed by the Weekly close above the Yellow channel 41k in the 2nd week, which was the 1st time in 5 months.

like 48k in the 1st Quarter, 49k is a resistance zone.

A weekly close above this will see price move quickly to 59k 

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORTS 6TH MARCH 2022

 

BITCOIN YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES.

I really was hoping for 47.5k to be reached in February, especially once it reserved off the February bottom in the 3rd week of the month and then the expectation it would follow through in the 4th week going into this 1st week of March.

There still is a bias to rise upwards this week, but how high?  43k - 47k

Just be mindful that any selling in March will likely push lower in April, especially the dreaded 3rd week of the month

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

Quarterly support in Jan - March, but the price action in the Primary cycles, doesn't favour a last month up move in March.

If it did, it should have bounce off the February lows at 2427 and the 1st week should be moving higher from 2791. Instead it's trading below, as well as below the 2022 50% level (BEAR MARKET)

It's fine to be trading longs in the daily cycles, but stops need to be super tight, as a move down to 1020 towards the 2022 lows is a high probability. 

BITCOIN ETHEREUM 7TH FEBRUARY 2022 MONTHLY REPORT

 

BITCOIN YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

A Bear market is the first half of 2022, can take it down to 37-39k, but that could be in February / March - double monthly low - decent counter-trend move upwards. 

PREVIOUS REPORT)

We saw a move down at the start of 2022 into the January lows and then further selling.

The month of February confirmed support off the quarterly lows 37k and now rising.

Expectation that a move will take it to 47.5k, which is seen as resistance in February

A very good counter-trade will see price as high as 59k by the 1st week of March - confirmed by a weekly close above 47.5k, which then forms support.

That's not something that can happen, but if you are holding longs, it's good to take partial exits on the way up and hold into the end of the month.

If it can't crack 48k by then, then there could be a 2nd way of selling in March / April, as part of a larger trend down in 2022.

ETHEREUM YEARLY AND PRI MARY CYCLES

February rising in the monthly range, and it's good to see the 1st week of the month, pushing higher.

As long as it's above 3k, we have a March target of 4200.

If it stalls around 3.5k and the back half of the month starts to trade below 3k, especially from March. I'd be lightening up any long positions. 

Follow on Twitter @timepricetravel 

BITCOIN & ETHEREUM MONTHLY REPORT 4TH JANUARY 2022

 

BITCOIN YEARLY AND PRIMARY CYCLES

As  Mentioned in the previous report, the December close below 53-55k wasn't a good sign for a 'Bull- Market' and also the last day of the trading year closing below the Quarterly level of 48.2k.

Therefore my view is that price will move down to 42.5k, find some support, but I don't know how much of a bounce there will be - other than 52-53k  (maybe 58-59k)

A Bear market is the first half of 2022, can take it down to 37-39k, but that could be in February / March - double monthly low - decent counter-trend move upwards. 

39k is the 2022 50% level 

ETHEREUM YEARLY & PRIMARY CYCLES

If BTC moves lower, then ETHEREUM most likely down into the January lows.

There seems to be a lot of support around those levels, as well as in the Yearly Cycles - 3200/3400

At the moment, it's leaning on the downside.

Final note - if this is a bear market, there will be 1 final bang higher in both BTC and ETH, which puts them around 58-59k  and ETH 4500

if it hits those levels and then back under the Monthly 50% levels, we could see BTC around the mid 20k's again in December 2022