BITCOIN REPORT - 20TH DECEMBER 2019

BITCOIN Primary & Secondary Cycles

Looking at the price action now compared to 2018, we are in the same position that may result in another breakout of the Secondary lows and continuation down into the DECEMBER LOWS and next BUY zone (22nd Nov Report)

We've had a similar pattern occur this November- December, as was the case in 2018, a breakout of the November lows and push down into the DECEMBER Lows & Support.

The question now remains now...

1. Do we have another 2 months sideways pattern into March 2020, struggling to get above 8050 and the 2019 50% level

2. Or does it shoot back up into the DECEMBER LEVEL (Yellow) and we then keep an eye on price action around January's 2020 50% level.

Primary & Secondary Trends remain bearish.

December lows are counter-trend buying opportunities using the 5-day cycles as guides - Entry / Exit/ Stops

BITCOIN REPORT 8th DEcember 2019

BITCOIN PRIMARY & Secondary Cycles

The Primary & Secondary Cycles in BITCOIN remain bearish. (below 50% levels)

We haven't seen too much selling in the past week, as it's currently being supported around the Quaterly lows.

 However, I would still like to see it continue down into the DECEMBER LOWS, as part of the breakout pattern.

BITCOIN REport 2nd December 2019

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

BITCOIN Back into Bear Market 

A break of November lows didn't attract too many other sellers this time around.

Therefore, if it's similar to December last year, then...

Random Support around DECEMBER LOWS - 6698  - 6263

Resistance - 8598

BITCOIN Report 22nd November 2019

BITCOIN SECONDARY CYCLES

Currently stalled at 9700 (below the Secondary 50% level)

If we are simply looking at 'Normal TEXT BOOK' Patterns, then there is a suggestion that it's moved up and retested the lows of the Previous support zones and failed, which matches the Secondary Trend's 50% level @ 9700

It should now continue lower???

However, if we follow the Dilernia Principles of Primary Trends - 2 to 4 years higher, then we're expecting more gains. 

Long Term forecasts was for BITCOIN to continue higher into the end of the year and 2020, whilst at the same time acknowledging it had to continue up in early November, not break 8900 because of the failure at 9700

Looking at the price action now compared to 2018, we are in the same position that may result in another breakout of the Secondary lows and continuation down into the DECEMBER LOWS and next BUY zone

However, there could be another counter-trend move back up into 9300, but I'm not BUYing at this level today

BITCOIN & ALTCOIN Report 16th November 2019

Nearly Every ALT COIN has had the same price action, as what we can see in LITECOIN.

The Change in direction based on the August levels, as price is pushed downward from the dynamic 50% level.

This did not happen in the BULL runs of 2016-2017.  ALL COINS never moved below those Monthly levels. They were all robust support levels that kept on pushing the trends higher each month.

Therefore, as much as I'm bullish on BITCOIN, there's other reasons to not feel as confident, simply because of the price action in ALT COINS. 

LITCOIN PRIMARY & MONTHLY CYCLES

If you've followed my calls on Cryptos, you know i've been bullish ever since the MARCH switch in the monthly cycles and bearish on altcoins since the switch back under at the Start of August

Even though BITCOIN remains above the Yearly 50% level at 8050, ALTCOINS have been a drag.

However, is it going to change at the start of DECEMBER?

There's a number of patterns appearing in ALTCOINS that might get Crypto's bullish again.

However, Primary cycles remain bearish :- Keep an eye on the 2020 50% level

MORENO Primary & Monthly Cycles

December levels starting to look interesting!!!

ETHEREUM PRIMARY & MONTHLY Cycles

Keep in mind we never got our rally towards the 2019 50% level, which happened in BITCOIN.

ALTCOINS remain bearish and the 2020 50% level will dictate whether prices will continue higher, or head down towards the 2020 lows again.

Will DECEMBER is  going to push ALTCOINS HIGHER or NOT?

However, there's a slight change in November that may lead to something more in December.

BITCOIN 1st November 2019 Monthly Report

BITCOIN PRIMARY & SECONDARY CYCLES

Primary Trend target in 2019 is $15,000+

Currently stalled at 9700 (below the Secondary 50% level)

If we are simply looking at 'Normal TEXT BOOK' Patterns, then there is a suggestion that it's moved up and retested the lows of the Previous support zones and failed, which matches the Secondary Trend's 50% level @ 9700

It should now continue lower???

However, if we follow the Dilernia Principles of Primary Trends - 2 to 4 years higher, then we're expecting more gains. 

If BITCOIN is going to push higher into the end of the year, then we would like it to remain above the NOVEMBER levels @ 8900-9100 (& not below)

BITCOIN Report 26th October 2019

BITCOIN Secondary & Weekly cycles

 I would think BITCOIN will try and move towards 9700... and hopefully continue higher as part of a 2 year trend towards new highs in 2020

However, 9700 will be seen as a resistance zone (previous report)

Sometimes we get the timing SPOT ON, other times, it follows text-book patterns before it continues on with the Primary trend.

Primary Trend - higher highs into 2020 - 2022

Above the 2019 50% level at 8050

moved higher, only once it hit the monthly lows in October.

Stalled at 9700.

We can see the step formations going forward in November and December.

Therefore, even though it's stalled at 9700...

our support zones are from next week at 8940, as part of a trend that's going higher.

BITCOIN ANALYSIS - 9th October 2019 BUY

BITCOIN Primary & Weekly Cycles

Sequential ordering of pattern formations #

1.      Apply the trend identification Model.

2.      Identify support, resistance, and trends

3.      Identify the change of support & resistance with the use of Time.

4.      Forewarn & foretell the likely events when certain price action occurs now or in the future.

If you go over my posts over the year, I identify key Support & Resistance levels and then introduce timing parameters to make decisions on whether to BUY, SELL or sit out

BUY December Lows 2018

NEW up trend to begin in March 2019

Exit Yearly 50% level @ 8050

New BUY around the 1st Week of August

And Last week's report - Support 8050 &  look for the week of 7th October for potential next move higher.

Even though it didn't go down to the level of low 7,285, it was the other factors in play confirmed with the 5-day breakout yesterday, even though I took the punt and bough back in before the break @ 8200.

     Forewarn & foretell the likely events when certain price action occurs now or in the future.

                  I would think BITCOIN will try and move towards 9700... and hopefully continue higher as part of a 2 year trend towards new highs in 2020

However, 9700 will be seen as a resistance zone

And 8050 is the support zone 

BITCOIN Report 30th September 2019

The Dilernia Model and Methodology seeks to understand the market forces that is driving price right at this moment in order to predict what might happen in the future. This enables the trader to better understand the strength of the trend and how long it might last for, or whether a change of trend is at hand.

A trader should analyse the market using the ‘Sequential ordering of pattern formations ’. This process is extremely important because it strengthens the reason for any trade taken, or why the trade should not be taken. This is when the trader optimises any potential trade now or in the future, and how best to manage the trade during the current market conditions.

Sequential ordering of pattern formations #

1.      Apply the trend identification Model.

2.      Identify support, resistance, and trends

3.      Identify the change of support & resistance with the use of Time.

4.      Forewarn & foretell the likely events when certain price action occurs now or in the future.

Optimising to the current market conditions

1.      The decision to Buy, Sell, or not trade

2.      Trade execution

3.      Trade Management.

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

I’ve posted the above because it gives us an idea how the price action is not always what it seems to be.  I’ve been extremely bullish  on BITCOIN since the bottoms in the Primary trends and subsequent continuation upwards in March this year.

I’ve been bullish every month since, but in the last report I flagged a potential downward move because of the price action in ALTCOINS, which wasn’t appearing in BITCOIN at the time.

So where are we now?

Whilst ALT COINS aren’t trading above their Primary 50% levels, BITCOIN has now found support around its 50% level at 8050.

Therefore, the key price action in BITCOIN looks to be occurring in October, but maybe not until the start of next week.

BITCOIN needs to find support around the October lows (7285) and then be back above 8390 the week of the 7^th October.

Otherwise expect further weakness, which is what occured in ALT COINS

As always, look for 5-day pattern set-ups for entry, as described in the book.

BITCOIN REPORT 2nd September 2019

 BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

If there's any selling in BITCOIN, then BUY SUPPORT LEVELS in August are shown above.

I would like this to keep going higher, but it won't surprise me to see a retest of the BUY zone. (Previous Report)

BITCOIN has drifted lower and towards the BUY zone in the monthly timeframes, which now corresponds with the SEPTEMBER levels around 9017 - 8679.

IF BITCOIN is going higher it needs to hold these levels, otherwise it's back down towards 8050 - 7285

We can also see, it goes from above the 50% levels to below the 50% levels at the start of SEPTEMBER @ 10330

I've been very confident that BITCOIN would go higher since earlier in the year. BULL trends that begin in March often see BULL trends last for a minimum of 2 years and up to 4 years.

 However, there are signs that things might be different this time, because ALT COINS are not doing as good, which might pull BITCOIN LOWER.

LITCOIN PRMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

Nearly Every ALT COIN has had the same price action as what we can see in LITECOIN.

The Change in direction based on the August levels, as price is pushed downward from the dynamic 50% level.

This did not happen in the BULL runs of 2016-2017.  ALL COINS never moved below those Monthly levels. They were all robust support levels that kept on pushing the trends higher each month.

Therefore, as much as I'm bullish on BITCOIN, there's other reasons to not feel as confident, simply because of the price action in ALT COINS.

BITCOIN REPORT 5th August 2019

BITCOIN Prrimary & Weekly Cycles

Buy the dips in July.

We need theses support levels to hold, a couple of weeks consolidation and then look for August to move higher. (5-day high pattern breakout)  Previous Report

5-day break out at the start of  August and now looking for this to continue towards $14000 & beyond.

If there's any selling in BITCOIN, then BUY SUPPORT LEVELS in August are shown above.

I would like this to keep going higher, but it won't surprise me to see a retest of the BUY zone.

BITCOIN REPORT 15th July 2019 Update

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

If Cryptos are going to go higher, then this is the the PULLBACK today that we want to see, as we're looking to buy the dips in July.

We need theses support levels to hold, a couple of weeks consolidation and then look for August to move higher. (5-day high patter breakout)

I think running stops below this week's lows (need to be confirmed), is what we're looking for

BITCOIN REPORT 30TH JUNE 2019

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEELKLY CYCLES

I mentioned a Parabolic move upwards 4 weeks ago and by the look of it's done exactly that.

Thankfully is hasn't close right on its highs at the end of the quater, which often can be blow off top and Selling can hit hard.

This year's target remains 15,000K+ and more in the coming years.

If we view BEAR into BULL market reversals, the trend should continue higher until 2020 and potentially into a 4 years of higher highs. Buying the DIPS using 'dynamic support' and 5-day patterns that help verify that support (it's all in the book) is what we're after, as it's only going to give us a few opportuntites.

Therefore, there's an expecation that BITCOIN will continue higher, with JULY 50% level as a support level.

What I'm also interested is in the BUY ZONE, which is much lower. BITCOIN won't reach that low level in July , but that Level will move higher in AUGUST. 

That dynamic BUY ZONE is as GOOD level to be trading LONGS once again from, if the next 4-weeks moves sideways, which it may do after the run we've just had.

BITCOIN CRYPTO ANALYSIS 16th June 2019 Report

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

In the SHORT TERM, if you subscribe to this theory, then we need to be BUYING the DIPS.

I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.

Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level. (Previous Post)

We've seen the Yearly 50% level resist price at $8050, retested the JUNE 50% level, found support and moved back above the Yearly 50% level. That price action was the perfect set-up to get back into the trend.

There's still a bit of risk that it might stall around these June highs @ 9600-9900 and move back below the Yearly 50% level, but there's enough risk reward for a move toward $15,000 in 2019 and much higher in the coming years.

There are a lot of other coins that are lagging in Price action compared to BITCOIN, but at long as BITCOIN goes higher, holding other coins is a no-brainer.

NOTE:- if we subscribe that is going to move higher for the next 4 years, BUY BITCOIN around the 3-month lows and hold, as it will eventually retest it, but you'll only get 1 or 2 chances during this time.

BITCOIN REPORT 31st MAY 2019 CRYPTO NEWS

BITCOIN PRIMARY & MONTHLY CYCLES

Great moves in all the coins during the month of MAY, with BITCOIN completeing the move into the Yearly 50% level @ 8050USD (EXIT)

I'm now on the sidelines on BITCOIN, but holding a number of other COINS that are still lagging behind with the same price action, of rotating into the Yearly 50% level. (read previous reports below)

HOW DO WE TRADE BITCOIN NOW?

The expectation is that this BULL CYCLE will continue to new highs until 2020, wth the 1st Target $15012, which may reach this year. (4th Quarter) and then new highs early next year.

BULL CYCLES move in 4 year cycles, therefore, there's still an expectation that the UPSIDE will still continue until 2022, with some suggesting that $51,000 is the target based on previous moves in BITCOIN throughout it's History.

In the SHORT TERM, if you subscribe to this theory, then we need to be BUYING the DIPS.

I'm hoping there will be dips and not a PARABOLIC move to 15012.

Short term Support resides around the JUNE 50% level.

LONG TERM SUPPORT will always be the 3-month trailing lows during the next 3 years.

BITCOIN 28th April 2019 Monthly Report

BITCOIN Primary & Weekly Cycles

UPSIDE target is the yearly 50% level in 2019.

However, there looks to be short-term weakness hitting Bitcoin that should see it retest the MAY 50% levels.

I would think those 50% levels will support BITCOIN  and then continue higher once again.

(Note - could go a low at 4307)

BITCOIN REPORT 5th April 2019

BITCOIN PRIMARY & SECONDARY CYCLES

Target remains the 2019 50% level @8050.50

We can see a breakout of the secondary cycle highs at the start of April, therefore there's an expectation that the trend will continue higher during this month and also MAY until 8050.50+ is reached.

If there's weakness at the start of Next Week, then those breakout highs are seen as SUPPORT around  4400-4800

I would be surprise to see BITCOIN spike up and drop back below 4400, but ....

BITCOIN ANALYSIS 30/3/2019 Monthly Report

BITCOIN PRIMARY & SECONDARY CYCLES

BITCOIN has turned the corner in MARCH 2019 and now looks to be heading much higher in 2019.

Even though it didn't follow the 2nd Primary cycle lower to 1100, it was the month of MARCH that was the KEY timing factor after the DECEMBER LOWS.

If we subscribe to PRIMARY CYCLES, which may or may not occur, the TARGET in 2019 is the 50% level at 8050USD  or 11350 AUD

There could be resistance around the APRIL highs, but the Support levels remain the channel lows and the APRIL 50% level at the start of the 2nd Quarter.

EOS PRIMARY & Weekly Cycles

Same applies to EOS and others below

LITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

ETHEREUM PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

ALL TARGETS WILL BE THE 2019 50% LEVELS, 

which may or m,ay not get there

BITCOIN Crypto Analysis - Monthly Report 3rd March 2019

BITCOIN PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

I've been bearish on Bitcoin, as part of the Primary Bearish cycles, with the expectation that price would continue down into the 2019 lows @1100

I also said that the bottom would occur in March 2019 and then continue higher.

However, it hasn't moved down to 1100, but instead moved sideways as the month of March begins.

Secondary cycles are bearish, however, the 50% level in April will drop and we could see price trading above the 50% level in the 2nd Quarter

Therefore the support levels on BITCOIN in March around 3250-3450 are interesting levels.

It certainly could still continue lower in April, as the 50% level pushes the trend downward, but there's a lot of positive news coming out about Institutional players taking larger stakes in BITCOIN and other Crypto's 

Target would be 2019 50% level.

BITCOIN CRYPTO ANALYSIS 4th February 2019

BITCOIN Primary & Secondary Cycles

I still continue to be bearish on BITCOIN based on the 2-wave pattern in the Primary cycles, with a long term PRIMARY target at 1100

However, as seen in Index stock markets in early 2019, they haven't followed the 2nd wave pattern into the 2nd Yeary lows, instead moving higher.

Secondary Cycles has a target down to 2769.

Monthly cycles, which has often seen some buying support as crept upwards in February to 3215.

Trend is down with RANDOM SUPPORT at 3125

BITCOIN Report 6th January 2019 Monthly Report

BITCOIN PRimary & Secondary Cycles

There should have been more upside in BITCOIN, when it reached the December lows earlier last month (Read previous report).

A retest of the previous breakout would have been the best case scenario before it continues lower, but there is a distinct lack of volume and volatility even around these lows.

The overall Primary Bear market in BITCOIN suggests, it should be following another wave pattern down towards the 2019 lows at 1100

Even though there could be some upside in early January, as long as it remains above 3745,  I'm struggling to see it rising above 4614.

Medium Term Support @ 2910-2800

LONG TERM SUPPORT - BUY & HOLD  $1,100

Whatever BITCOIN does, every other Crypto will follow.